Posts published in “Fiscal Investor Concepts”

Avoid the Three Fatal Errors

• Bias first: forming an opinion before you run the numbers.
• False precision: treating valuation like exact math instead of disciplined judgment.
• Complexity: using sophistication to hide weak assumptions.

Best practice: keep models simple, assumptions explicit, and logic testable.

Separate Price from Value

Price is what the market pays today—driven by sentiment, momentum, and liquidity. Value is the present worth of future cash flows, adjusted for risk and durability.

Price moves daily. Value changes only when the business changes. Fiscal Investors treat gaps as opportunity—not fear.

Balance Numbers and Narrative

Models without context are fragile. Stories without math are uninvestable. Great investing requires fluency in both:

• Narrative: business model, moat, industry structure, incentives
• Numbers: cash flow, margins, capital intensity, balance sheet risk

Narratives Shape Valuations

Valuation isn’t neutral—it reflects the story you believe. The same company can justify very different valuations depending on framing.

Stress-Test the Story

Before you commit capital, force your thesis through three gates:

1. Possible: can it happen?
2. Plausible: does the industry structure support it?
3. Probable: is there evidence it’s likely?

If it fails any gate, resize the bet—or skip it.

Filter Signal from Noise

Investors drown in data. Most of it is distraction. Focus only on what changes:

• cash-flow durability
• competitive advantage
• growth trajectory
• risk exposure